Last reviewed March 2026 · DwellQ Research · Florida8 SOURCES
Market data sourced from publicly available reports. Data is not updated in real time — verify current figures with local sources before making decisions.
Median Home
$580,000
Median Condo
$430,000
Condo / Apt
Median Rent (1BR)
$2,400/mo
Median Rent (2BR)
$3,000/mo
Break-Even
3–5 years
Estimated range
Appreciation
5.2%/yr
Property Tax
0.9–1.1%
State Income Tax
None
Monthly PITI
$3,900–$4,500
Principal + Interest + Tax + Ins
Rate Modeled
6.1%
Down Payment
$116,000 (20%)
📌
Florida’s Save Our Homes amendment caps assessed value increases at 3%/yr for homesteaded properties. No state income tax. But property insurance is the critical variable: premiums of $4,000–$10,000+/yr are common and rising 20–40% annually.
KEY INSIGHT
Miami’s 5.2% appreciation and no state income tax make the buy math attractive, with 3–5 year break-even. But hurricane insurance ($4K–$10K+/yr) rising 20–40% annually and post-Surfside HOA special assessments are the wildcards that most calculators completely miss.
Market Overview
Miami’s median home price of $580K and condos at $430K, combined with 5.2% annualized appreciation and no state income tax, have made it one of the strongest buyer’s markets in this series by the numbers. The Save Our Homes cap (3%/yr assessment increase limit) creates a long-term tax advantage for existing owners, similar to California’s Prop 13 but less extreme.
Insurance Cost Crisis
Property insurance is the defining cost variable in South Florida real estate. Annual premiums of $4,000–$10,000+ (depending on property type, age, location, and flood zone) are standard and have been increasing 20–40% annually. On a $580K property, insurance of $6,000–$8,000/yr adds $500–$667/mo in carrying costs that many calculators either omit or grossly underestimate. This single variable can shift break-even by 1–3 years.
Under baseline assumptions with current 5.2% appreciation, break-even occurs in 3–5 years. However, if appreciation moderates to 3% and insurance continues rising at 20%+/yr, break-even extends to 6–9 years. The insurance trajectory is the most important forward-looking variable in the Miami market.
Condo-Specific Risks
Following the 2021 Surfside structural collapse, Florida enacted stricter building recertification requirements. Older condo buildings face mandatory structural inspections and may require significant capital improvements. Special assessments of $10,000–$100,000+ per unit have become more common. Buyers should review the building’s reserve study, recent engineering reports, and recertification compliance status.
⚠Hurricane insurance rising 20–40% annually in many areas
⚠HOA special assessments post-Surfside inspection requirements
⚠Flood zone reclassification can add $2K–$5K/yr
⚠Save Our Homes 3% cap creates portability issues when moving
⚠Climate risk: sea level rise, storm surge, and salt intrusion
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it better to rent or buy in Miami in 2026?+
Strong appreciation (5.2%) and no income tax favor buying over 4+ year horizons. But insurance costs ($4K–$10K+/yr) rising 20–40% annually are the critical variable. Model insurance as an explicit input.
How do insurance costs affect break-even?+
Annual premiums of $6K–$8K add $500–$667/mo. If insurance rises 20%/yr, this grows to $700–$930/mo within 3 years. This alone can shift break-even by 1–3 years.
Are Miami condos riskier than houses?+
Post-Surfside, older condos face structural recertification requirements and potential special assessments of $10K–$100K+. Review the building’s reserve study and engineering reports before purchasing.
Does Save Our Homes help Miami buyers?+
Yes. The 3%/yr cap on assessed value increases means long-term holders pay substantially less in property tax than market value would suggest. After 10 years, the gap can be significant.
Run the numbers for Miami
See how the rent-vs-buy math works with Miami market data pre-loaded.
DwellQ research uses a net worth comparison framework. Both paths—buying (building equity minus all ownership costs) and renting (investing the down payment plus monthly surplus)—are modeled month-by-month over the full holding period. Assumptions are documented, sensitivity-tested, and sourced from publicly available data. This is scenario analysis, not financial advice.
SOURCES & REFERENCES
U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, Miami-Fort Lauderdale MSA.[census.gov]
Zillow Research. Miami ZHVI and ZORI Data, accessed Jan 2026.[zillow.com/research]
Miami-Dade County Property Appraiser. Tax Rates and Save Our Homes Data.[miamidade.gov/pa]
Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. Annual Report on Property Insurance Market.[floir.com]
Federal Housing Finance Agency. House Price Index, Miami MSA.[fhfa.gov]
Miami Association of Realtors. Monthly Market Statistics.[miamirealtors.com]
National Hurricane Center. Historical Storm Data, SE Florida.[nhc.noaa.gov]
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED: Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Miami.[fred.stlouisfed.org]